Thursday, September 11, 2008

Can Obama Pull a Bush 2000?

Right now, it looks like Obama may very well lose the popular vote but win the election. Take a look at, a website that has both the national election and each state broken down according to recent polls. In the national election, it looks like McCain leads Obama by 1.5 points. Meanwhile, 98 electorate votes remain tossups, and Obama is likely to get 243 electorate votes whereas McCain is likely to get 197. Now, 270 votes are needed to win the electoral college. Thus, if Obama can pick up 27 votes from the toss up states he'll win. Currently, he's projected to do just that. He's leading by a couple points in both Michigan and Ohio -- which would give Obama 37 of the toss up votes and the necessary votes needed to win. So, if the election were held today, Obama might well pull a Bush in 2000 and lose the popular vote but win the electoral college.

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